Cathay Pacific plans to cut capacity on routes to the US and around the world this winter by up to six percentage points, according to a report from Reuters. The move comes as travel demand to and from Hong Kong, one of the world’s premier business and tourist destinations, has been decimated in the wake of massive anti-government protests over the last two months. The protests, which have occasionally turned into violent clashes between the police and protestors, have driven a 40% drop in visitor arrivals to Hong Kong for the month of August.
For Cathay Pacific specifically, traffic inbound to Hong Kong declined by 38% in August while outbound traffic leaving Hong Kong dropped by a more modest 12%. Demand has been most affected for premium cabin travel and for passengers traveling from mainland China and Northeast Asia. In contrast, Australia and New Zealand have been a relative bright spot. The airline expects lower travel demand due to the protests to continue into September and beyond. It had previously planned to grow capacity by 6% year-over-year (YOY) in the winter period (October 2019 to March 2020), but now expects capacity to be down slightly YOY.
In addition to the drop in demand from passengers traveling directly to and from Hong Kong, Cathay has also been slammed by a drop in connecting passengers. An increasing number of travelers are avoiding a connection in Hong Kong due to (mostly unfounded) fears of further disruption of airport operations.
Three North American Routes For Cathay Pacific Affected
According to @Airlineroute on Twitter, Cathay Pacific plans to reduce capacity on its routes from Hong Kong to Vancouver, New York JFK, and Washington Dulles.
Cathay Pacific’s Hong Kong – New York JFK CX846/845 service is closed for booking on 3 of 7 weekly flights in winter 2019/20 season
— Airlineroute (@Airlineroute) September 11, 2019
Cathay Pacific’s 1 of 5 weekly Hong Kong – Washington Dulles service is display 0 for all fare classes in winter 2019/20 season (27OCT19 – 28MAR20)
— Airlineroute (@Airlineroute) September 11, 2019
Cathay Pacific has closed reservation for 3 weekly Hong Kong – Vancouver CX856/859 service (A350-900XWB) from 29OCT19 for winter season
— Airlineroute (@Airlineroute) September 11, 2019
The previous schedule called for the airline to operate 17 flights per week between Hong Kong and Vancouver with 14 operated by the Boeing 777-300ER and 3 operated by the A350-900. The Vancouver-Hong Kong route is also served by Air Canada daily with a Boeing 777-300ER and 3 times per week (Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday) by Hong Kong Airlines with an Airbus A350-900.
New York JFK was previously scheduled to see 20 nonstop flights per week, all operated using Boeing 777-300ER equipment. In addition, Cathay Pacific also flies a daily nonstop flight to Newark with an A350-900, and also offers daily one-stop service via Vancouver. The Vancouver-New York JFK was separately planned to be phased out at the end of March. The only other airline offering service in the NYC – Hong Kong market is United Airlines, who offers a daily flight on a Boeing 777-300ER.
Cathay Pacific is the only airline to offer nonstop service between the DC area and Hong Kong.
Oneworld Award Availability To Asia Will Drop
If you are a flyer with oneworld miles (American, British Airways) your options for mileage tickets to Asia, particularly in business and first where Cathay has historically had solid winter availability and has an awesome product, are going to come down a bit. In theory, the drop in premium cabin demand should make more premium cabin mileage tickets available. But in practice, as Gary Leff over at View From the Wing reported, American at least has not responded to the drop in demand by making more premium cabin awards available.
If you’re going to be paying out of pocket, don’t expect to see any discounts on direct flights to Hong Kong. As Gary pointed out, most of the people flying in and out of Hong Kong have to fly so the fare inventory is skewing towards more flexible, full-fare tickets. There could be some deals, however, for connections over Hong Kong, especially in premium cabins.
In addition to the cuts outlined above, we do expect Cathay Pacific to further cut capacity within Asia, particularly on routes to and from mainland China. Many of these routes are operated by Cathay Pacific’s regional arm Dragonair.
